Recent Population Trends for Downstate Illinois Metropolitan Areas

The present data review considers factors associated with population changes in the 2000-2003 period of the six Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA’s) in downstate Illinois that are entirely in Illinois: Bloomington-Normal MSA, Champaign-Urbana MSA, Decatur MSA, Peoria MSA, Rockford MSA, and Springfield MSA. Discussion of these metropolitan areas relies on the boundaries of these MSA’s, as derived from the 2000 Census (see table)

Economic growth can help drive population growth for an MSA. There is often a lagged impact of economic decline on population, however, so that job declines may result in substantial out-migration only after several years. The impact of the nation’s recession of 2001 had persistent effects on Illinois, as the number of Illinois jobs dropped each year from 2000 to 2003, for a cumulative 3.8% decline by 2003 from 2000 levels. The population of the Illinois nonetheless grew by 1.9%, as gains from births outnumbered losses from people moving out of state.

Downstate, four MSA’s had fewer jobs in 2003 than in 2000 (Decatur MSA, Peoria MSA, Rockford MSA, and Springfield MSA), while two MSA’s (Bloomington-Normal MSA, Champaign-Urbana MSA) showed job growth from 2000-2003. Taken together, there was an average decline of 4% in the number of jobs across the six downstate MSA’s studied from 2000 to 2003 (see tables).

The population nonetheless grew from 2000 to 2003 not only in the two MSA’s with more jobs (Bloomington-Normal MSA and Champaign-Urbana MSA), but also in the Springfield MSA and in the Rockford MSA, with population declines found in the Decatur MSA and the Peoria MSA.

Looking at the components of population change, the number of births exceeded the number of deaths in each of the six downstate MSA’s in the 2000-2003 period. The MSA’s with declining population (Decatur MSA and Peoria MSA) fell because of out-migration, where population losses due to out-migration outweighed population gains from births (see table).

Out-migration and population loss occur once residents lose confidence that the lost jobs will return to their area and then move away in search of work. Without a recovery in local job opportunities, residents would be expected to leave not only the Decatur and Peoria MSA’s, but also the Springfield and Rockford MSA’s.

Principal Cities of the MSA

It is instructive to consider the relationship between MSA population and the population of the largest city of an MSA. During the economic expansion of the 1990’s, not only did many of the largest MSA’s nationally grow, but so too did the central cities of the MSA’s, so that growth was not only a suburban phenomenon, but growth of the city as well.

The national pattern of the 1990’s was evident in Illinois largest MSA, with growth of the Chicago suburbs and growth in the City of Chicago itself. In downstate Illinois during the 1990’s, the average MSA grew, and so too did the largest city, on average. In four of the five growing MSA’s of the 1990’s, the largest city (Bloomington, Champaign, Rockford, and Springfield; see table) grew also.

In the 2000-2003 period, four MSA’s grew (Bloomington, Champaign, Rockford, and Springfield), as did the largest cities of each of these MSA’s. The declining MSA’s of Decatur and Peoria also experienced declines in their largest cities’ population in the 2000-2003 period (see table).

Projecting the 2000-2003 city population trends shows the projected populations for these cities in 2010. (See table)

Strong growth is projected for the cities in the two areas that experienced recent job growth, Bloomington and Champaign. Without such job growth, the cities of Rockford and Springfield would be projected to show more limited population growth in the 2000-2010 period. Meanwhile the population declines of the 2000-2003 period for Peoria and Decatur signal further losses ahead.

The projections discussed are based on extrapolating the trends from the 2000-2003 period of job loss. If economic recovery boosts populations for the downstate MSA’s later in this decade, both city and suburban populations should increase much as they did during the 1990’s, when MSA growth downstate was associated with growth of the largest cities of the MSA (other than Peoria).