Consumer Confidence in the Economy
Business and Economic Indicators
Performance in Third Quarter 2009
The Quarterly Summary Index of key local business and economic indicators for the Peoria-Pekin Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) fell 0.5% during the third quarter, following quarterly declines that averaged 2.1% over the first half of the year.
The Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) computes its quarterly Summary Index of key business and economic indicators for the five county (Peoria, Tazewell, Woodford, Stark and Marshall) Peoria-Pekin MSA, to reflect business activity in the MSA. An index score of 100 represents the positive local business conditions in the first quarter of 2000, following the expansion of the previous decade. The Summary Index fell from the first quarter 2000 to its low in the first quarter of 2003, and recovered until peaking during the second quarter of 2007 (see graph).
The CBER is located in the Foster College of Business Administration of Bradley University, and has compiled a local business and economic data base since 1991. The Peoria Journal Star funds maintenance of this business indicator database, with report preparation supported by the Turner Center for Entrepreneurship of the Foster College of Business Administration at Bradley University.
Douglas Antola Crowe Dr. Bernard Goitein
Assistant to the Dean Director
Foster College of Business Administration Center for Business and Economic Research
For a complete report, contact the Study Director, Dr. Bernard Goitein at bjg@bumail.bradley.edu or (309)-677-2262
© Bradley University
Footnotes:
The "Single Family Building Permits" Index includes seasonally adjusted activity authorized by local building permits issued by the City of Peoria, Marshall County, Peoria County, Stark County, Tazewell County and Woodford County. The building permit activity authorized by these six governments in 2000 reflected over 80% of the nearly 1000 single family building permits issued by all governments in the five county MSA during the base year of 2000.
The "Job Opening Index" reflects help wanted postings, with an Index value of 100 corresponding to the average quarter's number of five county help wanted posting in 2000.
The "New Unemployment Claims Index" refers to the seasonally adjusted number of new weekly unemployment claims in the five-county Peoria-Pekin MSA, with an Index value of 100 reflecting the average weekly number of new unemployment claims in 2000.
The "Employer Confidence Index" is a seasonally adjusted indicator index that is based on the Manpower, Inc quarterly surveys of Peoria MSA employers conducted at the beginning of the quarter, keyed to the percentage of employers expressing a positive versus a negative attitude. A score of 100 reflects local employer confidence in the base year of 2000.
Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales reflect total estimated retail sales dollars in the five county Peoria-Pekin MSA, adjusted for normal seasonal variation in retail sales.
The Inflation Adjusted Retail Sales Index reflects retail spending in the Peoria-Pekin MSA, adjusted for inflation and for normal seasonal variation in retail sales. A score of 100 represents the inflation adjusted, seasonally adjusted retail sales during the first quarter of 2000.
The CBER estimates for each quarter the annual rate of homes sold, based on the seasonally adjusted rate of the present quarter. The CBER’s five-county seasonally adjusted Index of Available homes for sale is computed relative to the score of 100 in the base year of 2000 The CBER’s estimate of the seasonally adjusted Index of Price of Homes Sold is computed relative to a score of 100 in the base year of 2000.
The "Summary Peoria-Pekin MSA Index" consists of the average of 20 key standardized, seasonally adjusted economic indicators. Indicators are standardized using a z transformation. A value of 100 corresponds to the Index value in the first quarter of 2000.
US government statistics compiled include Illinois and US unemployment rates, the Midwest Urban Consumer Price Index (CPI; computed monthly for the Midwest region by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), the "Value of U.S. Dollar Index," and the Gross Domestic Product.